Polls: Netanyahu still popular despite ‘witch-hunt’ corruption allegationsIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Ohad Zwigenberg/POOL)
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Notwithstanding a string of graft allegations, Netanyahu and his Likud party still lead in polls and would return to office in snap elections.
By Steve Leibowitz and JNS/Israel Hayom
A poll conducted Monday by the Geocartographic Institute on behalf of Israel Hayom indicated that if general elections were held now, Likud would win 34 Knesset seats, an increase over the 30 it won in the 2015 election.
The poll also showed that Yesh Atid, under Yair Lapid, would secure 20 seats, compared to its current 11. This is down from the previous poll, which gave it 25. Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) would win 14 seats, compared to eight in the current Knesset.
The Zionist Union, which currently has 24 seats, would drop to 12, and the Joint Arab List, with 13 seats, would likewise drop to 12. United Torah Judaism would increase from its current six seats to nine.
The results also showed Yisrael Beytenu, headed by Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, would win six seats; seven would go to Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu Party, and six to Meretz. According to the poll, Shas would not pass the electoral threshold necessary to be part of the Knesset.
A poll broadcast by Hadashot (formerly Channel 2 News) found that 50 percent of the respondents said believe Netanyahu should resign or declare incapacitation, compared to 33 percent who would like him to remain in office. In addition, 42 percent said the Knesset should be dissolved and new elections held. Thirty-six percent of the public say they oppose early elections.
‘The public is deeply polarized’
Hebrew University Political Scientist Prof. Avrum Diskin told World Israel News (WIN), “Netanyahu and Likud are still strong because there is a sense in his base that Netanyahu is being persecuted. That’s the feeling in the public, and they are not wrong. That’s why people who support him are staying with him. The public is deeply polarized with a feeling of ‘you are either with or against us.”
“When there is emotional polarization, voters tend to stick to their camp and support its leader,” Diskin said. Netanyahu has been persecuted by media commentators who do not even pretend to be neutral. Netanyahu is being hunted, and his voters feel they are being hunted. The prime minister’s voters will stick with him and are totally against allowing the government to be brought down by what they consider to be a witch hunt.”
Pollster Mitchell Barak from Keevoon Strategies told WIN, “The average Likud voter is traditional and right of center. They view the investigations as an effort by leftist media elite to bring down the elected leader, whom they greatly admire. When it comes to votes and parties, they prefer leadership to justice. The base of Likud supporters will stick with Netanyahu unless he starts making left-leaning concessions like Arik Sharon and Ehud Olmert did. The Likud has a strong brand, and even in the worst times they still automatically keep their base supporters no matter who the leader is.”
Many believe that if Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit decides to indict Netanyahu on one or more of the allegations against him, particularly if it is a count such as breach of trust, the prime minister might demand early elections as a way of asking the public to demonstrate its faith in him.
Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely said on Tuesday that “the understanding in political circles is that if Netanyahu is indicted, the current government will not remain in place.”
民意调查：内塔尼亚胡尽管受到“寻衅滋事”的腐败指控仍然很流行以色列总理内塔尼亚胡。 （Ohad Zwigenberg / POOL）
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尽管存在一系列贪污指控，但内塔尼亚胡及其利库德党仍在民意调查中领先，并将在快速选举中重返职位。
由史蒂夫Leibowitz和JNS /以色列Hayom
Geocartographic Institute周一以Israel Hayom的名义进行的民意调查显示，如果现在举行大选，利库德将赢得34个议会席位，比2015年大选中的30席增加。
此次民意调查还显示，Yair Lapid旗下的Yesh Atid将获得20个席位，而目前的席位数量为11席。这与之前的民意调查结果相比有所下降，该调查结果为25席。教育部长Naftali Bennett的Habayit Hayehudi（犹太人之家）将赢得14席，而目前的议会中有八个。
目前拥有24个席位的犹太复国主义联盟将下降到12个，而拥有13个席位的联合阿拉伯名单也将下降到12个。联合托拉犹太教将从目前的六个席位增加到九个。
结果还表明，国防部长Avigdor Liberman领导的以色列Beytenu将赢得六个席位;七人将前往财政部长摩西卡隆的库兰努党，六人前往梅雷兹。根据民意调查显示，沙斯不会通过必要的选举门槛，成为以色列议会的一部分。
哈达斯霍特（之前的第2频道新闻）的一项民意调查发现，50％的受访者表示认为内塔尼亚胡应该辞职或宣布失能，而33％的人希望他继续任职。另外，42％的人表示议会应该解散并举行新的选举。百分之三十六的公众表示反对早日举行选举。
“公众是两极化的”
希伯来大学政治学家Avrum Diskin教授告诉“以色列新闻报”（WIN），“内塔尼亚胡和利库德依然强大，因为他的基地有一种意识，即内塔尼亚胡正在受到迫害。这是公众的感受，而且他们没有错。这就是为什么支持他的人和他在一起。公众深深地被两极分化，感觉’你要么与我们同在，要么反对我们。“
“当情绪两极分化时，选民倾向于坚持阵营并支持其领导者，”迪斯金说。内塔尼亚胡受到媒体评论员的迫害，他们甚至不假装中立。内塔尼亚胡正在被猎杀，他的选民觉得他们正在被捕。总理的选民将坚持他的观点，并完全反对允许政府被他们认为是谋杀的巫术所打倒。“
Keevoon Strategies的Pollster Mitchell Barak告诉WIN，“平均的利库德选民是传统和中心的权利。他们认为这次调查是左派媒体精英努力击垮他们非常钦佩的民选领袖。当谈到投票和派对时，他们更喜欢领导正义。利库德支持者的基地将坚持与内塔尼亚胡，除非他开始像埃里克沙龙和埃胡德奥尔默特这样的左倾让步。利库德拥有强大的品牌，即使在最糟糕的时候，他们仍然会自动保留基地的支持者，无论领导者是谁。“
许多人认为，如果总检察长艾维察·门德尔布莱特决定起诉内塔尼亚胡针对他的一项或多项指控，特别是如果这是一项诸如违反信任的指控，总理可能会要求提前选举，以此作为要求公众表明的方式对他的信仰。
外交部副部长Tzipi Hotovely周二表示，“政治界的理解是，如果内塔尼亚胡被起诉，目前的政府将不会继续存在。”